EPA Ozone Maps vs Bird/WNV Maps
New York City Region - August, 2000

May, 2000 June, 2000 July, 2000 August, 2000 September, 2000
Date Event EPA AIRNOW MAP EPA AIRNOW ONE-HOUR AVG MAP PubDate
8/1/00 1 Crow Collected (Midland Beach), WNV Positive NYCDOH pr79-822
8/2/00 "New York City Health Commissioner Neal L. Cohen, M.D., announced today that the New York State Department of Health confirmed yesterday that blood samples obtained from five live wild birds collected in Greenwood Cemetery, Brooklyn have tested positive for West Nile virus."

1 Crow Collected (Claremont Park, Bronx), WNV Positive

1 crow collected from Pelham Pkwy, Bronx, WNV positive.
NYCDOH pr76-816 pr79-822 pr85-831
8/3/00 "Blood samples from four sparrows and one mockingbird were collected on August 2 and August 3. Blood samples from 89 other birds that were trapped in Greenwood Cemetery were found to be negative for the virus." NYCDOH pr76-816
8/4/00 "The 64 year-old woman who lives in Great Kills, Staten Island, became ill with symptoms of meningitis on August 4, and was admitted to a local hospital on August 6."

1 Crow Collected (Central Park, Manhattan), WNV Positive
NYCDOH
pr74-812 pr79-822
8/5/00 "The 63 year-old man who lives in Willowbrook, Staten Island, became ill with symptoms of meningitis on July 31, and was admitted to a local hospital on August 5... Both individuals are now [PR 8/12/00] at home recovering." NYCDOH
pr74-812
8/6/00    
8/7/00 See 8/17/00 for event prediction and results.  
8/8/00 1 Crow Collected (SI, Westerleigh), WNV Positive

1 House Finch Collected (Throgs Neck, Bronx), WNV Positive
NYCDOH pr79-822
8/9/00 1 Crow Collected (Inwood Hill Park, Manhattan), WNV Positive

1 Live House Sparrow Collected (Orchard Beach -Pelham Park, Bronx), WNV Positive

1 Crow Collected (Fort Hamilton, Brklyn), WNV Positive
NYCDOH pr79-822
8/10/00    
8/11/00    
8/12/00 "Dr. Cohen also announced that a dead crow found in the East Tremont section of the Bronx has tested positive for West Nile virus. This represents the first indication of viral activity in the Bronx..." NYCDOH
pr74-812
8/13/00    
8/14/00    
8/15/00 "...a fishcrow collected from the Gramercy Park neighborhood in Manhattan on August 15, and in a fishcrow collected from the Fort Hamilton neighborhood of Brooklyn on August 16." NYCDOH pr82-829
8/16/00 Emailed 8/16/00, 11:32pm to 5 people:

"No one has found a formula predicting how it makes its leap to a human outbreak from the circumstances now seen in southern New York."
-- NYT 8/8/00

TO THE CONTRARY, FOR THE RECORD

I'm predicting the city will soon announce that a few WNV human cases and bird positives had been discovered with onsets during the period of 8/7 through 8/11. My clue is high neurotoxic industrial ozone and ongoing neurotoxic MTBE levels in that period. Ozone levels can be viewed on the EPA website www.epa.gov/airnow/maparch.html. Industrial, ground level ozone is representative of photochemical smog, which includes neurotoxic aromatic nitros.

I also predict that the city will NOT announce any WNV human onsets for the period 8/12 through 8/20. I've determined this by viewing the EPA ozone archives, which show low ozone levels for this period, and from recent weather forecasts, which predict cool weather for this period. Cool weather correlates with low ozone levels.

Note: City announcements seem to occur several days after onset of WNV cases (onset determined from the event of hospital admittance and subsequently gathered patient history of illness). Delay is due to seropositive test and PCR confirmation time requirements.

-- Jim West
8/16/00    
8/17/00 "23 mosquito pools in Staten Island, 3 mosquito pools from Central park, Manhattan, and 1 mosquito pool from Hunts Point in the Bronx test positive for West Nile virus... 3 dead crows: one in northern Manhattan; one in Central Park; and one in Whitestone Queens, test positive for West Nile virus."

"...a crow found on August 17 in Murray Hill, Manhattan..."

1 crow collected Aug 17, Port Richmond, SI.
NYCDOH pr77-817 pr85-831
  "...announced today that three mosquito pools from Staten Island, one bluejay from Dongan Hills, Staten Island, 1 bluejay from Douglaston, Queens and 1 bluejay from Alley Pond, Queens have tested positive for West Nile virus... Additionally, 1 American Kestril from Neponsit, Queens, and 1 American Kestril from Woodside, Queens have also tested positive for West Nile virus. These findings were reported to the City Health Department today by the New York State Department of Health." [pr78-818]

The above is a continued partial fulfillment of prediction (8/16/00) in terms of non-human disease events. Accounting for lab test delay (7-10 day) this puts this event at 8/8 to 8/11/00.

The 8/18/00 event locale is Staten Island. I would need to confer with the SI station monitor data re this abberation.

8/18/00 "...a 52 year-old man from the Graniteville section of Staten Island has tested positive for West Nile virus. The individual became ill with symptoms of meningitis on August 15, and was admitted to a local hospital on August 18. The patient was released from the hospital on August 25 and is now at home recovering." NYCDOH pr84-830
8/19/00 1 crow collected from the vicinity of Clove Lakes Park (SI) on August 19. NYCDOH pr85-831
8/20/00    
8/21/00 1 crow collected from Willow Brook Park (SI) on August 21. NYCDOH pr85-831
8/22/00    
8/23/00    
8/24/00    
8/25/00    
8/26/00    
8/27/00    
8/28/00    
8/29/00    
8/30/00    
8/31/00    

 

May, 2000 June, 2000 July, 2000 August, 2000 September, 2000